Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

48-38  |  Road

5
FINAL
Thu, Jul 3 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

48-38  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Austin Wells
STARTING PITCHER

Austin Wells

#28 | Catcher
@
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Austin Wells None-None -- -- -- --
Braydon Fisher None-None 2.59 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.59
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
📊
BLUE JAYS
50%
YANKEES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Toronto)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

37.1%

Blue Jays Cover

62.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYY By 1-2 runs

15.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

9.7%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.96
NEW YORK
5.28
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
Toronto: 1.9 vs New York: 1.5
Runs per Game (Season) +55.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season) +34.9%
New York: 1.0% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.0 5
TOR Score 5.3 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 10.2 11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.2 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 17.1 24.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.8 / 5.4 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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