Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

46-41  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Jul 3 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

43-43  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jung Hoo Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Jung Hoo Lee

#51 | Right Field
@
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jung Hoo Lee None-None -- -- -- --
Kevin Ginkel None-None 10.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 10.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
53%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

41.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

58.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.9%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.5%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.22
SAN FRANCISCO
5.12
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +161.0% more
Arizona: 2.3 vs San Francisco: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +36.8% more
Arizona: 17.3 vs San Francisco: 12.7
Hits (L5) +23.0% more
Arizona: 9.3 vs San Francisco: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.2 7
ARI Score 5.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 7.5 3.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 9.8 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.3 / 12.7 10.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 59 minutes ago
Rich Rodriguez's Arizona Legacy: All-Star Team Rekindles Tucson …
newspub_live 12 hours, 55 minutes ago
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
newschannel10 2 days ago
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS
usatoday 2 days, 12 hours ago