KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
40-47 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
45-41 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 1.95 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.95 Ldr
ERA
2.78
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
44%
MARINERS
56%
ROYALS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.9%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.7%
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.9%
SEA By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.25
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
4.55
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
SEA @ KC
6 - 8
May 23, 2026
SEA @ KC
0 - 5
May 22, 2026
SEA @ KC
2 - 0
May 3, 2026
KC @ SEA
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
KC @ SEA
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.718
▲
OPS
.693
170
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+110.0% more
Seattle: 1.2
vs
Kansas City: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+49.2% more
Seattle: 3.7
vs
Kansas City: 2.5
Total Bases (L5)
+47.8% more
Seattle: 14.2
vs
Kansas City: 9.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.6% more
Seattle: 9.5
vs
Kansas City: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.3
3
SEA Score
4.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.2
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.9
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 9.6
19.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.5
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
KC
SEA
KC
ML
50%
81-81
55%
89-72
52%
85-77
56%
90-70
ATS
60%
98-64
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
56%
85-67-10
58%
90-64-7
53%
81-71-10
54%
83-70-7
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …