ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
47-40 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
37-50 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.76 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.64 | -- | 7.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.76 Ldr
ERA
3.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
61%
PIRATES
39%
CARDINALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
STL By 1-2 runs
17.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.4%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.22
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
5.63
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.691
OPS
▲
.734
167
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+23.5% more
Pittsburgh: 14.2
vs
St. Louis: 11.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.4% more
Pittsburgh: 7.8
vs
St. Louis: 6.3
Hits (L5)
+22.6% more
Pittsburgh: 9.2
vs
St. Louis: 7.5
Home Runs (L5)
+17.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.2
0
PIT Score
5.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.5
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 6.3
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 11.5
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52%
82-77
53%
85-74
52%
85-78
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
81-82
53%
85-76
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
68-81-10
50%
79-78-6
50%
76-75-10
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