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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

40-45  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 6:40 PM ET
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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

38-45  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Kody Clemens
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Clemens

#2 | Second Base
@
Janson Junk
STARTING PITCHER

Janson Junk

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kody Clemens None-None -- -- -- --
Janson Junk None-None 3.62 -- 6.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.62
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
51%
📊
MARLINS
49%
TWINS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Miami)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

42.2%

Marlins Cover

57.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.8%

MIN By 3-4 runs

11.2%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.4%

MIA By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.13
MINNESOTA
4.92
MIAMI
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
3
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim Twins (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 MIA @ MIN 1 - 9
May 13, 2026 MIA @ MIN 9 - 5
May 12, 2026 MIA @ MIN 0 - 3
Jul 3, 2025 MIN @ MIA 1 - 4
Jul 2, 2025 MIN @ MIA 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲ .727
187 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +98.0% more
Miami: 9.1 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Total Bases (L5) +87.2% more
Miami: 14.9 vs Minnesota: 8.0
Strikeouts (L5) +22.5% more
Miami: 8.6 vs Minnesota: 7.0
Home Runs (L5) +16.0% more
Miami: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.1 2
MIA Score 4.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 4.6 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.0 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 8.0 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.8 / 1.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIN
MIA
MIN
ML
48% 78-84
52% 84-78
55% 88-72
50% 80-81
ATS
56% 91-71
59% 95-67
54% 86-74
59% 95-66
TTL
56% 88-69-5
51% 78-75-9
53% 82-73-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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