Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

48-37  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

47-38  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 2.61 -- 1.1 2
Brendon Little None-None 2.27 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.61 ERA Ldr 2.27
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
51%
📊
BLUE JAYS
49%
YANKEES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

38.2%

Blue Jays Cover

61.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

NYY By 1-2 runs

15.8%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.0%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.78
NEW YORK
4.98
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +17.1% more
Toronto: 7.9 vs New York: 6.8
Home Runs (L5) +10.4% more
Toronto: 1.4 vs New York: 1.3
Hits (L5) +9.7% more
Toronto: 8.5 vs New York: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.8 9
TOR Score 5.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.8 13.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.3 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 6.8 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 13.1 23.0 / 25.0
Walks 4.6 / 4.6 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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