Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Mets MIL @ NYM

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

48-37  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

48-38  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Joey Ortiz
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Ortiz

#3 | Shortstop
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Joey Ortiz None-None -- -- -- --
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
51%
📊
METS
49%
BREWERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

55.3%

Mets Cover

44.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.2%

MIL By 3-4 runs

15.1%

NYM By 1-2 runs

17.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.05
MILWAUKEE
4.52
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Brewers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Brewers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 MIL @ NYM 8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 MIL @ NYM 8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 MIL @ NYM 2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 NYM @ MIL 3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026 NYM @ MIL 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.743 ▲
OPS
.705
154
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +38.4% more
Milwaukee: 1.4 vs New York: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +32.4% more
Milwaukee: 12.5 vs New York: 8.4
Runs per Game (Season) +16.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +14.2% more
Milwaukee: 14.6 vs New York: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.1 3
NYM Score 4.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 9.1 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.4 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 12.5 3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 14.6 2.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.5 7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIL
NYM
MIL
ML
50% 79-80
62% 101-61
48% 76-83
52% 84-78
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 94-68
49% 78-81
48% 78-84
TTL
55% 80-66-13
40% 62-92-8
51% 74-72-13
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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