Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Diamondbacks SF @ ARI

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

45-41  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Jul 2 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

43-42  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Merrill Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Merrill Kelly

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Camilo Doval None-None 3.03 -- 2.0 3
Merrill Kelly None-None 3.55 -- 6.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.03 Ldr ERA 3.55
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
52%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
GIANTS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Arizona)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

36.6%

Diamondbacks Cover

63.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

9.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.98
SAN FRANCISCO
5.35
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 ARI @ SF 7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026 ARI @ SF 10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026 SF @ ARI 6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 SF @ ARI 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +192.0% more
Arizona: 2.4 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +61.9% more
Arizona: 17.0 vs San Francisco: 10.5
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Arizona: 0.9 vs San Francisco: 0.5
Hits (L5) +33.3% more
Arizona: 8.4 vs San Francisco: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.0 6
ARI Score 5.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 6.3 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 8.2 5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 17.0 / 10.5 18.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.1 / 3.3 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SF
ARI
SF
ML
54% 87-74
49% 79-81
54% 86-74
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
56% 89-71
52% 83-77
TTL
52% 80-73-8
55% 82-68-10
49% 73-77-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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