NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
48-36 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
46-38 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | None-None | 2.13 | -- | 6.0 | 2 |
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 1.90 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.13
ERA
Ldr 1.90
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
52%
BLUE JAYS
48%
YANKEES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.9%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.55
NEW YORK
Toronto
4.07
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041
▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+69.5% more
New York: 1.9
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+55.6% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+34.9%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.6
5
TOR Score
4.1
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 7.1
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.9
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.2
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 14.2
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.9
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46%
74-87
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
95-66
49%
79-81
53%
86-76
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-85-5
53%
82-72-7
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