Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Pirates STL @ PIT

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

47-39  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Jul 1 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

36-50  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Andre Pallante
STARTING PITCHER

Andre Pallante

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andre Pallante None-None 4.10 -- 7.0 3
Paul Skenes None-None 2.03 -- 5.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
4.10 ERA Ldr 2.03
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
63%
📊
PIRATES
37%
CARDINALS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 71%
Under 0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Pittsburgh)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

45.6%

Pirates Cover

54.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

STL By 1-2 runs

17.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

12.3%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.1%

PIT By 3-4 runs

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.33
ST. LOUIS
5.77
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.691
OPS
▲ .734
167
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +53.5% more
Pittsburgh: 18.7 vs St. Louis: 12.2
Hits (L5) +52.5% more
Pittsburgh: 11.7 vs St. Louis: 7.7
Home Runs (L5) +22.8% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4 vs St. Louis: 1.1
Home Runs (Season) +11.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.3 0
PIT Score 5.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.7 / 7.7 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.5 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 18.7 / 12.2 5.0 / 10.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.8 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52% 82-77
53% 85-74
52% 85-78
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 81-82
53% 85-76
TTL
47% 72-81-6
46% 68-81-10
50% 79-78-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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