MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
40-44 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
37-45 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Heriberto Hernandez
#13 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | None-None | 2.75 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.75
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
4
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
53%
MARLINS
47%
TWINS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.2%
MIN By 3-4 runs
11.8%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.31
MINNESOTA
Miami
4.92
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Miami
2
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Twins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 14, 2026
MIA @ MIN
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
MIA @ MIN
9 - 5
May 12, 2026
MIA @ MIN
0 - 3
Jul 3, 2025
MIN @ MIA
1 - 4
Jul 2, 2025
MIN @ MIA
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲
.727
187
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+63.6% more
Miami: 9.6
vs
Minnesota: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+51.8% more
Miami: 15.9
vs
Minnesota: 10.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.3
0
MIA Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 5.9
8.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.5
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 10.5
13.0 / 3.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.2
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIN
MIA
MIN
ML
48%
78-84
52%
84-78
55%
88-72
50%
80-81
ATS
56%
91-71
59%
95-67
54%
86-74
59%
95-66
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
78-75-9
53%
82-73-5
53%
80-72-9
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