Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Red Sox CIN @ BOS

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

44-41  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jul 1 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

42-44  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 9.00 -- 2.0 4
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.29 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 1.29
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
53%
📊
RED SOX
47%
REDS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

31.0%

Red Sox Cover

69.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.9%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.27
CINCINNATI
6.25
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 BOS @ CIN 2 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 BOS @ CIN 5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026 BOS @ CIN 3 - 0
Jul 2, 2025 CIN @ BOS 8 - 4
Jul 1, 2025 CIN @ BOS 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.11 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.229 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.305 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.699 ▲
OPS
.409
213 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +138.0% more
Boston: 2.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +52.4% more
Boston: 20.7 vs Cincinnati: 13.6
Strikeouts (L5) +32.5% more
Boston: 8.6 vs Cincinnati: 6.5
Hits (L5) +16.4% more
Boston: 10.7 vs Cincinnati: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.3 3
BOS Score 6.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 9.2 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.5 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 20.7 / 13.6 12.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CIN
BOS
CIN
ML
50% 80-80
55% 88-71
47% 76-87
49% 79-81
ATS
58% 93-67
54% 86-73
48% 79-84
50% 80-80
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-73-5
47% 74-83-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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