HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
50-34 | Road
6
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
19-65 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.86 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.86 Ldr
ERA
3.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
83%
ROCKIES
17%
ASTROS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.4%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.7%
COL By 1-2 runs
9.1%
COL By 3-4 runs
4.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
6.12
HOUSTON
Colorado
2.58
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.5
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
COL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
COL @ HOU
1 - 3
Apr 14, 2026
COL @ HOU
6 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 9
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.582
OPS
▲
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+58.5% more
Houston: 1.4
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.4% more
Houston: 9.4
vs
Colorado: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+9.3% more
Houston: 12.0
vs
Colorado: 10.9
Home Runs (Season)
+4400.0% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
6.1
6
COL Score
2.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 7.4
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 9.4
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 12.0
20.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
HOU
COL
HOU
ML
60%
97-64
50%
81-82
55%
88-73
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
91-72
52%
83-78
55%
90-74
TTL
60%
93-62-6
45%
70-84-9
50%
77-78-6
45%
69-86-9
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