ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
47-38 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
35-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Gonzales
#3 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Nick Gonzales | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
64%
PIRATES
36%
CARDINALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
14.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
6.45
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
4.78
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.691
OPS
▲
.734
167
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+45.0% more
St. Louis: 4.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.2% more
St. Louis: 9.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.6
Hits (L5)
+26.8% more
Pittsburgh: 12.1
vs
St. Louis: 9.6
Total Bases (L5)
+20.2% more
Pittsburgh: 19.6
vs
St. Louis: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
6.5
0
PIT Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.1 / 9.6
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.2
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
19.6 / 16.3
17.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
STL
PIT
STL
ML
52%
82-77
53%
85-74
52%
85-78
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
81-82
53%
85-76
TTL
47%
72-81-6
46%
68-81-10
50%
79-78-6
50%
76-75-10
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