Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Blue Jays NYY @ TOR

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

48-35  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Jun 30 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

45-38  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Hill None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 --
Mason Fluharty None-None 5.56 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 Ldr ERA 5.56
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
54%
📊
BLUE JAYS
46%
YANKEES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

52.6%

Blue Jays Cover

47.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.8%

NYY By 3-4 runs

14.3%

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.0%

TOR By 3-4 runs

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.51
NEW YORK
4.25
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 TOR @ NYY 3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 TOR @ NYY 4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 TOR @ NYY 1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026 NYY @ TOR 4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026 NYY @ TOR 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
1.041 ▲
OPS
.692
2
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +55.6% more
New York: 9.0 vs Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +52.5% more
New York: 1.8 vs Toronto: 0.9
OPS (Season) +34.9%
New York: 1.0% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Walks (L5) +26.3% more
New York: 4.3 vs Toronto: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.5 4
TOR Score 4.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.2 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.8 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 14.3 12.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.3 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYY
TOR
NYY
ML
46% 74-87
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-66
49% 79-81
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 80-76-5
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-85-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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