CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
44-40 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
41-44 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Trevino
#35 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.84
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
54%
RED SOX
46%
REDS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.72
CINCINNATI
Boston
5.59
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
BOS @ CIN
2 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
BOS @ CIN
5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026
BOS @ CIN
3 - 0
Jul 2, 2025
CIN @ BOS
8 - 4
Jul 1, 2025
CIN @ BOS
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.699
▲
OPS
.409
213
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+58.0% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+35.1% more
Boston: 16.1
vs
Cincinnati: 11.9
Walks (L5)
+8.5% more
Boston: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 4.2
Home Runs (Season)
+99.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.7
6
BOS Score
5.6
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.8
14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.2
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 11.9
30.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.2
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CIN
BOS
CIN
ML
50%
80-80
55%
88-71
47%
76-87
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-67
54%
86-73
48%
79-84
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-5
47%
74-83-6
54%
83-72-5
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