KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
39-45 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
43-40 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.05 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.05 Ldr
ERA
2.84
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
MARINERS
55%
ROYALS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
KC By 1-2 runs
18.4%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.5%
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.4
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
4.44
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
SEA @ KC
6 - 8
May 23, 2026
SEA @ KC
0 - 5
May 22, 2026
SEA @ KC
2 - 0
May 3, 2026
KC @ SEA
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
KC @ SEA
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.718
▲
OPS
.693
170
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Seattle: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+30.2% more
Seattle: 10.3
vs
Kansas City: 7.9
Walks (L5)
+28.7% more
Seattle: 4.4
vs
Kansas City: 3.4
Total Bases (L5)
+18.5% more
Seattle: 13.9
vs
Kansas City: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.4
2
SEA Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 7.9
12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.5
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.8
9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.7
21.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.4
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
KC
SEA
KC
ML
50%
81-81
55%
89-72
52%
85-77
56%
90-70
ATS
60%
98-64
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
56%
85-67-10
58%
90-64-7
53%
81-71-10
54%
83-70-7
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