ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
46-38 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
40-41 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 5.57 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25 Ldr
ERA
5.57
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
55%
GUARDIANS
45%
CARDINALS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.8%
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.6
ST. LOUIS
Cleveland
3.39
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 15, 2026
CLE @ STL
3 - 5
Apr 14, 2026
CLE @ STL
5 - 6
Apr 13, 2026
CLE @ STL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2025
STL @ CLE
7 - 0
Jun 28, 2025
STL @ CLE
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.691
OPS
▲
.696
167
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+35.3% more
St. Louis: 1.6
vs
Cleveland: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+31.9% more
St. Louis: 8.8
vs
Cleveland: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+28.7% more
St. Louis: 15.5
vs
Cleveland: 11.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.6% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.6
7
CLE Score
3.4
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.8 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 8.8
3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.4
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 15.5
3.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.3
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
STL
CLE
STL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
85-74
49%
80-82
52%
84-77
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
89-70
59%
95-67
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
68-81-10
43%
69-90-2
50%
76-75-10
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