NEW YORK
METSNYM
48-36 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
34-50 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Torrens
#13 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Torrens | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 5.08 | -- | 3.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.08
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
66%
PIRATES
34%
METS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
NYM By 1-2 runs
8.8%
NYM By 3-4 runs
4.1%
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.25
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
5.89
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.6
C
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.705
OPS
▲
.734
204
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+19.0% more
Pittsburgh: 10.2
vs
New York: 8.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+2.9%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
2.3
1
PIT Score
5.9
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.2 / 8.5
16.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.8
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.1
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 12.7
32.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYM
PIT
NYM
ML
52%
82-77
50%
79-80
52%
85-78
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
81-82
49%
78-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
80-66-13
50%
79-78-6
51%
74-72-13
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