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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

48-35  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jun 29 • 1:35 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

38-44  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.48 -- 1.0 3
Raisel Iglesias None-None 5.28 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.48 Ldr ERA 5.28
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
61%
📊
BRAVES
39%
PHILLIES --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 38%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

50.6%

Braves Cover

49.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.5%

PHI By 3-4 runs

13.7%

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.54
PHILADELPHIA
4.48
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026 PHI @ ATL 4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 PHI @ ATL 3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026 PHI @ ATL 9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Atlanta ATL
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲ .757
3 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.9% more
Philadelphia: 1.3 vs Atlanta: 0.5
Batting Avg (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Atlanta: 43.3%
Runs per Game (Season) +42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.5 2
ATL Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 7.9 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 9.4 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 13.3 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46% 77-90
59% 97-67
54% 90-78
49% 80-84
ATS
57% 96-71
65% 107-57
52% 87-81
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 83-73-11
57% 88-67-9
49% 76-80-11
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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