SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
45-37 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
43-40 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 3.41 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.09 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.41
ERA
Ldr 3.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
53%
REDS
47%
PADRES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.7%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.67
SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati
4.63
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.925
▲
OPS
.699
4
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+33.3% more
San Diego: 1.4
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+22.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.7
2
CIN Score
4.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.4
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.8
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 13.3
10.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.9
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
55%
88-71
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
91-77
50%
80-80
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
81-73-5
51%
82-80-6
54%
83-72-5
54%
86-74-6
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