CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
49-34 | Road
0
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
49-34 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Busch
#29 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Busch | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.67 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.67
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
50%
ASTROS
50%
CUBS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.4%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.84
CHICAGO
Houston
4.38
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
HOU @ CHC
8 - 5
May 23, 2026
HOU @ CHC
3 - 0
May 22, 2026
HOU @ CHC
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2025
CHC @ HOU
0 - 2
Jun 28, 2025
CHC @ HOU
12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
3.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.169
.229
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.354
.374
OPS
▲
.582
0
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+38.8% more
Chicago: 21.2
vs
Houston: 13.0
Home Runs (L5)
+37.2% more
Chicago: 2.4
vs
Houston: 1.5
Hits (L5)
+31.7% more
Chicago: 11.1
vs
Houston: 7.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+250.0% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.8
0
HOU Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 11.1
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 2.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 4.9
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 21.2
10.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.1
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHC
HOU
CHC
ML
50%
81-82
58%
93-68
47%
77-87
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
91-72
61%
97-63-1
55%
90-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
45%
70-84-9
52%
81-74-6
45%
69-86-9
46%
72-83-6
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