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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

40-43  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Jun 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

52-32  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Larnach
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Larnach

#9 | Left Field
@
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Larnach None-None -- -- -- --
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
36%
📊
TIGERS
64%
TWINS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Detroit)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

44.7%

Tigers Cover

55.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.4%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.0%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.2%

DET By 3-4 runs

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.65
MINNESOTA
5.18
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 MIN @ DET 2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 MIN @ DET 3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026 MIN @ DET 4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 DET @ MIN 11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026 DET @ MIN 2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +34.7% more
Detroit: 10.5 vs Minnesota: 7.8
Total Bases (L5) +28.8% more
Detroit: 18.9 vs Minnesota: 14.7
Home Runs (L5) +11.9% more
Detroit: 2.0 vs Minnesota: 1.8
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Minnesota: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.7 0
DET Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.5 / 7.8 10.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.8 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.9 / 14.7 19.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54% 86-73
52% 84-78
54% 87-73
50% 80-81
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 95-67
57% 91-69
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-9
46% 69-81-10
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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