MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
40-42 | Road
5
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
51-32 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zach McKinstry
#39 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 5.28 | -- | 5.2 | 5 |
| Zach McKinstry | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.28
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
37%
TIGERS
63%
TWINS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
17.6%
DET By 1-2 runs
14.9%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
5.62
MINNESOTA
Detroit
4.08
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
MIN @ DET
2 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
MIN @ DET
3 - 2
Sep 7, 2026
MIN @ DET
4 - 5
Sep 2, 2026
DET @ MIN
11 - 6
Sep 1, 2026
DET @ MIN
2 - 15
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
.720
187
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+41.6% more
Minnesota: 1.7
vs
Detroit: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.6% more
Minnesota: 9.7
vs
Detroit: 7.6
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Minnesota: 0.5
vs
Detroit: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+3.2% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Detroit: 181.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
5.6
5
DET Score
4.1
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.7
15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.7
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.7
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 14.5
29.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.2 / 1.6
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
54%
87-73
50%
80-81
ATS
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
59%
95-66
TTL
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-75-9
46%
69-81-10
53%
80-72-9
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