Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Pirates NYM @ PIT

NEW YORK

METSNYM

48-35  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jun 28 • 4:05 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

33-50  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Braxton Ashcraft
STARTING PITCHER

Braxton Ashcraft

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Braxton Ashcraft None-None 1.56 -- 2.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.56
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
68%
📊
PIRATES
32%
METS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Pittsburgh)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

19.6%

Pirates Cover

80.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

NYM By 1-2 runs

9.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

4.5%

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.23
NEW YORK
5.66
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.4
C
Sim Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 NYM @ PIT 11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 NYM @ PIT 0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026 NYM @ PIT 6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026 PIT @ NYM 4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 PIT @ NYM 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.705
OPS
▲ .734
204 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +18.3% more
Pittsburgh: 9.3 vs New York: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season) +9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs New York: 4.3
Total Bases (L5) +8.0% more
Pittsburgh: 13.6 vs New York: 12.6
OPS (Season) +2.9%
Pittsburgh: 73.4% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 2.2 2
PIT Score 5.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 7.8 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 8.2 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 12.6 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.4 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYM
PIT
NYM
ML
52% 82-77
50% 79-80
52% 85-78
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-66
50% 81-82
49% 78-81
TTL
47% 72-81-6
55% 80-66-13
50% 79-78-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 33 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 36 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 44 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 21 minutes ago