Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Royals LAD @ KC

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

52-31  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jun 28 • 4:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-44  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Miguel Rojas
STARTING PITCHER

Miguel Rojas

#72 | Second Base
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Miguel Rojas None-None 15.75 -- 1.0 --
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.63 -- 1.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
15.75 ERA Ldr 2.63
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
66%
📊
ROYALS
34%
DODGERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Kansas City)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

47.9%

Royals Cover

52.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.1%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.0%

KC By 1-2 runs

18.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.9
LOS ANGELES
4.11
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 KC @ LAD 2 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 KC @ LAD 4 - 5
Aug 10, 2026 KC @ LAD 5 - 6
Jun 29, 2025 LAD @ KC 5 - 1
Jun 28, 2025 LAD @ KC 5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.718
204 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Kansas City: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Home Runs (L5) +68.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Walks (L5) +39.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Kansas City: 2.4
Total Bases (L5) +30.1% more
Los Angeles: 15.6 vs Kansas City: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.9 5
KC Score 4.1 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.6 14.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 8.2 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 15.6 22.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.4 / 4.0 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAD
KC
LAD
ML
55% 89-72
56% 92-73
56% 90-70
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 98-67
58% 93-67
43% 72-94
TTL
58% 90-64-7
48% 77-82-6
54% 83-70-7
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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