MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
35-45 | Road
8
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
41-40 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | None-None | 6.98 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.07 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.98
ERA
Ldr 4.07
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
43%
DIAMONDBACKS
57%
MARLINS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.4
MIAMI
Arizona
5.91
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 2
Sep 14, 2026
MIA @ ARI
7 - 8
Jun 11, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
▲
OPS
.720
168
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Arizona: 0.9
vs
Miami: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+22.8% more
Arizona: 1.9
vs
Miami: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.2% more
Arizona: 9.3
vs
Miami: 7.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.4
8
ARI Score
5.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 11.5
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 7.6
14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 20.5
16.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.2 / 3.5
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIA
ARI
MIA
ML
54%
87-74
48%
78-84
54%
86-74
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
91-71
56%
89-71
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
80-73-8
56%
88-69-5
49%
73-77-9
53%
82-73-5
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