SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
44-37 | Road
6
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
43-39 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 1.98 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 1.79 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.98
ERA
Ldr 1.79
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
52%
REDS
48%
PADRES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.1%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.63
SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati
4.46
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.925
▲
OPS
.699
4
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+22.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.2% more
San Diego: 11.2
vs
Cincinnati: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.6
6
CIN Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 5.2
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 11.2
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 7.9
11.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.3
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
55%
88-71
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
91-77
50%
80-80
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
81-73-5
51%
82-80-6
54%
83-72-5
54%
86-74-6
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