Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Guardians STL @ CLE

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

45-38  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Jun 28 • 4:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

40-40  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 3.24 -- 1.0 1
Tim Herrin None-None 4.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.24 Ldr ERA 4.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
54%
📊
GUARDIANS
46%
CARDINALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

56.5%

Guardians Cover

43.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

15.4%

CLE By 1-2 runs

17.1%

CLE By 3-4 runs

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.08
ST. LOUIS
3.43
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 15, 2026 CLE @ STL 3 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 CLE @ STL 5 - 6
Apr 13, 2026 CLE @ STL 9 - 3
Jun 29, 2025 STL @ CLE 7 - 0
Jun 28, 2025 STL @ CLE 9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.691
OPS
▲ .696
167 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +61.7% more
St. Louis: 1.3 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +39.7% more
St. Louis: 11.7 vs Cleveland: 7.1
Hits (L5) +27.6% more
St. Louis: 6.2 vs Cleveland: 4.5
Runs per Game (Season) +5.6% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.1 9
CLE Score 3.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 2.2 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.5 / 6.2 9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 8.0 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 7.1 / 11.7 19.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
STL
CLE
STL
ML
54% 87-74
53% 85-74
49% 80-82
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 89-70
59% 95-67
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 88-71-2
46% 68-81-10
43% 69-90-2
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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