CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
48-34 | Road
12
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
49-33 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | None-None | 4.37 | -- | 5.0 | 2 |
| Steven Okert | None-None | 2.43 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.37
ERA
Ldr 2.43
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
49%
ASTROS
51%
CUBS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
72%
Under 0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.7%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.9%
HOU By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.7
CHICAGO
Houston
4.99
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
HOU @ CHC
8 - 5
May 23, 2026
HOU @ CHC
3 - 0
May 22, 2026
HOU @ CHC
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2025
CHC @ HOU
0 - 2
Jun 28, 2025
CHC @ HOU
12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
3.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.169
.229
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.354
.374
OPS
▲
.582
0
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+250.0% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+116.3% more
Houston: 10.3
vs
Chicago: 4.8
Slugging Pct (Season)
+20.9%
Houston: 35.4%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
OPS (Season)
+20.8%
Houston: 58.2%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.7
12
HOU Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.2
7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.6
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 4.8
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 16.3
14.0 / 31.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.1
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHC
HOU
CHC
ML
50%
81-82
58%
93-68
47%
77-87
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
91-72
61%
97-63-1
55%
90-74
47%
75-85-1
TTL
45%
70-84-9
52%
81-74-6
45%
69-86-9
46%
72-83-6
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