PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
48-34 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
37-44 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.06 | -- | 5.0 | 7 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 5.46 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.06 Ldr
ERA
5.46
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
BRAVES
37%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.12
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
3.93
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+47.4% more
Philadelphia: 17.5
vs
Atlanta: 9.2
Hits (L5)
+29.1% more
Philadelphia: 9.9
vs
Atlanta: 7.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.1
1
ATL Score
3.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.9
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.6
14.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 17.5
19.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.2
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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