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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

34-48  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jun 28 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

40-41  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Sam Bachman None-None 2.25 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.25
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
42%
📊
ANGELS
58%
NATIONALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

52.7%

Angels Cover

47.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

14.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.79
WASHINGTON
4.52
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAA @ WSH 5 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAA @ WSH 5 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 LAA @ WSH 3 - 4
Jun 29, 2025 WSH @ LAA 7 - 4
Jun 28, 2025 WSH @ LAA 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.744 ▲
OPS
.679
210 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Washington: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +26.7% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +20.3% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Hits (L5) +18.6% more
Washington: 11.4 vs Los Angeles: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.8 2
LAA Score 4.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 11.4 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 7.1 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 16.8 20.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.2 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
WSH
LAA
WSH
ML
59% 96-66
57% 92-69
55% 89-73
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-68
51% 82-80
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-74-5
50% 77-78-6
52% 82-75-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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