NEW YORK
METSNYM
48-34 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
32-50 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 3.90 | -- | 5.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.90
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
METS
69%
PIRATES
31%
METS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.9%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.86
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
4.83
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
31% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.705
OPS
▲
.734
204
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+2.9%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
vs
New York: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
2.9
1
PIT Score
4.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.7
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 9.3
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 13.4
19.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.1
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYM
PIT
NYM
ML
52%
82-77
50%
79-80
52%
85-78
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
81-82
49%
78-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
80-66-13
50%
79-78-6
51%
74-72-13
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