Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Guardians STL @ CLE

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

44-38  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jun 27 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

40-39  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Pedro Pages
STARTING PITCHER

Pedro Pages

#43 | Catcher
@
Erik Sabrowski
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Sabrowski

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pedro Pages None-None -- -- -- --
Erik Sabrowski None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
53%
📊
GUARDIANS
47%
CARDINALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

49.5%

Guardians Cover

50.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

STL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.4%

CLE By 1-2 runs

18.5%

CLE By 3-4 runs

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.85
ST. LOUIS
3.9
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 15, 2026 CLE @ STL 3 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 CLE @ STL 5 - 6
Apr 13, 2026 CLE @ STL 9 - 3
Jun 29, 2025 STL @ CLE 7 - 0
Jun 28, 2025 STL @ CLE 9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.691
OPS
▲ .696
167 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +193.0% more
Cleveland: 2.3 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Walks (L5) +28.9% more
Cleveland: 3.7 vs St. Louis: 2.9
Strikeouts (L5) +24.0% more
Cleveland: 8.1 vs St. Louis: 6.6
OPS (Season) +0.5%
Cleveland: 69.6% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.9 5
CLE Score 3.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 2.3 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 5.9 1.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 6.6 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 10.1 1.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.9 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
STL
CLE
STL
ML
54% 87-74
53% 85-74
49% 80-82
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 89-70
59% 95-67
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 88-71-2
46% 68-81-10
43% 69-90-2
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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