PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
47-34 | Road
13
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
37-43 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Alan Rangel
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Rangel | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.72 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25
ERA
Ldr 1.72
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
62%
BRAVES
38%
PHILLIES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
14.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
8.7%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.69
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
5.36
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.724
OPS
▲
.757
3
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+42.9% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Walks (L5)
+38.2% more
Atlanta: 2.5
vs
Philadelphia: 1.8
Home Runs (L5)
+10.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.7
13
ATL Score
5.4
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 6.3
9.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
8.3 / 8.2
11.0 / 36.0
Walks
2.5 / 1.8
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PHI
ATL
PHI
ML
46%
77-90
59%
97-67
54%
90-78
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
96-71
65%
107-57
52%
87-81
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
57%
88-67-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-76-9
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