Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Astros CHC @ HOU

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

48-33  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jun 27 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

48-33  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Michael Busch
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Busch

#29 | First Base
@
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Busch None-None -- -- -- --
Josh Hader None-None 1.72 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.72
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
50%
📊
ASTROS
50%
CUBS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

45.2%

Astros Cover

54.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

12.2%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.72
CHICAGO
5.2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 HOU @ CHC 8 - 5
May 23, 2026 HOU @ CHC 3 - 0
May 22, 2026 HOU @ CHC 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2025 CHC @ HOU 0 - 2
Jun 28, 2025 CHC @ HOU 12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Houston HOU
2
Games Played
2
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 3.00
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .169
.229
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .354
.374
OPS
▲ .582
0
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +250.0% more
Houston: 3.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +94.2% more
Houston: 11.0 vs Chicago: 5.7
Slugging Pct (Season) +20.9%
Houston: 35.4% vs Chicago: 14.5%
OPS (Season) +20.8%
Houston: 58.2% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.7 4
HOU Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 9.8 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 5.7 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 16.5 16.0 / 16.0
Walks 1.6 / 2.1 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHC
HOU
CHC
ML
50% 81-82
58% 93-68
47% 77-87
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 91-72
61% 97-63-1
55% 90-74
47% 75-85-1
TTL
45% 70-84-9
52% 81-74-6
45% 69-86-9
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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