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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

33-48  |  Road

15
FINAL
Fri, Jun 27 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

40-40  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Irvin None-None 4.73 -- 4.1 5
Sam Bachman None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.73 ERA Ldr 2.57
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
41%
📊
ANGELS
59%
NATIONALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

39.1%

Angels Cover

60.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
WASHINGTON
4.91
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAA @ WSH 5 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAA @ WSH 5 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 LAA @ WSH 3 - 4
Jun 29, 2025 WSH @ LAA 7 - 4
Jun 28, 2025 WSH @ LAA 2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.744 ▲
OPS
.679
210 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +103.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.0 vs Washington: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +53.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.0 vs Washington: 7.1
Total Bases (L5) +32.5% more
Los Angeles: 15.5 vs Washington: 11.7
Hits (L5) +10.8% more
Los Angeles: 8.4 vs Washington: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.8 15
LAA Score 4.9 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.6 11.0 / 19.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 7.1 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 11.7 23.0 / 27.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.2 6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
WSH
LAA
WSH
ML
59% 96-66
57% 92-69
55% 89-73
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-68
51% 82-80
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-74-5
50% 77-78-6
52% 82-75-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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