PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
47-33 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
47-33 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.56 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.72 | -- | 1.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.56
ERA
Ldr 1.72
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
ASTROS
0%
PHILLIES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PHI By 1-2 runs
12.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.1%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.4%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.57
PHILADELPHIA
Houston
5.85
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
HOU @ PHI
2 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
HOU @ PHI
7 - 11
Sep 8, 2026
HOU @ PHI
6 - 5
Jun 26, 2025
PHI @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 25, 2025
PHI @ HOU
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
3.50
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.286
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.724
▲
OPS
.582
3
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Houston: 1.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Houston: 0.7
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+16.9% more
Houston: 12.0
vs
Philadelphia: 10.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.8% more
Houston: 9.5
vs
Philadelphia: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.6
1
HOU Score
5.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 7.5
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.7
14.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.3
8.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.7
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PHI
HOU
PHI
ML
50%
81-82
59%
97-67
47%
77-87
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-72
65%
107-57
55%
90-74
51%
83-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
57%
88-67-9
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…