ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
41-38 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
25-55 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 11.40 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
11.40
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
WHITE SOX
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
19.6%
CHW By 1-2 runs
10.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
5.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.7
ARIZONA
Chicago
2.6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.1
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
CHW @ ARI
4 - 1
Apr 22, 2026
CHW @ ARI
7 - 11
Apr 21, 2026
CHW @ ARI
11 - 5
Jun 25, 2025
ARI @ CHW
3 - 7
Jun 24, 2025
ARI @ CHW
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.720
OPS
▲
.826
166
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+66.5% more
Arizona: 1.6
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+49.9% more
Arizona: 16.3
vs
Chicago: 8.2
Hits (L5)
+48.3% more
Arizona: 9.3
vs
Chicago: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.7
3
CHW Score
2.6
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
4.8 / 9.3
12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 10.1
9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
8.2 / 16.3
23.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
ARI
CHW
ARI
ML
48%
81-87
54%
87-74
56%
94-74
54%
86-74
ATS
59%
99-69
57%
91-70
55%
93-75
56%
89-71
TTL
58%
97-69-2
52%
80-73-8
51%
85-81-2
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
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White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
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