PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
32-49 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
44-36 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.12 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.12 Ldr
ERA
2.60
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
BREWERS
0%
PIRATES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.2%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.81
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
4.86
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+115.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+71.9% more
Milwaukee: 10.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+32.5% more
Milwaukee: 18.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.9
Hits (L5)
+20.1% more
Milwaukee: 11.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
2
MIL Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.8 / 9.8
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 6.2
13.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
18.4 / 13.9
7.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.6
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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