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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

32-45  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Jun 25 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

44-35  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips None-None 3.89 -- 1.0 --
Camilo Doval None-None 2.78 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.89 ERA Ldr 2.78
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
36%
📊
GIANTS
64%
MARLINS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

54.6%

Giants Cover

45.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.1%

MIA By 3-4 runs

14.9%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.39
MIAMI
3.93
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 SF @ MIA 1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026 SF @ MIA 3 - 6
Jun 19, 2026 SF @ MIA 3 - 4
Apr 26, 2026 MIA @ SF 3 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 MIA @ SF 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.727 ▲
OPS
.706
168
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +40.4% more
Miami: 3.4 vs San Francisco: 2.0
Hits (L5) +29.4% more
Miami: 9.5 vs San Francisco: 6.7
Total Bases (L5) +11.3% more
Miami: 13.6 vs San Francisco: 12.1
Runs per Game (Season) +6.3% more
Miami: 4.4 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.4 8
SF Score 3.9 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 9.5 5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.0 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 13.6 8.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.4 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
MIA
SF
MIA
ML
49% 79-81
48% 78-84
53% 85-75
55% 88-72
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 91-71
52% 83-77
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 82-68-10
56% 88-69-5
46% 68-81-11
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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