Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Reds NYY @ CIN

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

45-33  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 24 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

41-38  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
@
Chase Burns
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Burns

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Fernando Cruz None-None 3.19 -- 0.2 --
Chase Burns None-None 5.40 -- 5.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
3.19 Ldr ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
100%
📊
REDS
0%
YANKEES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cincinnati)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

40.6%

Reds Cover

59.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

10.8%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.07
NEW YORK
5.02
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
3
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Yankees (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 CIN @ NYY 4 - 1
Jun 20, 2026 CIN @ NYY 10 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 CIN @ NYY 0 - 5
Jun 25, 2025 NYY @ CIN 7 - 1
Jun 24, 2025 NYY @ CIN 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Cincinnati CIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
1.041 ▲
OPS
.699
2
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +10550.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs New York: 2.0
Walks (L5) +17.8% more
Cincinnati: 2.7 vs New York: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5) +17.3% more
Cincinnati: 9.0 vs New York: 7.7
Runs per Game (Season) +54.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.1 4
CIN Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.2 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 7.7 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 15.3 13.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.3 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYY
CIN
NYY
ML
55% 88-71
47% 76-85
49% 79-81
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 95-66
50% 80-80
53% 86-76
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 81-73-7
54% 83-72-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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