PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
47-31 | Road
0
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
45-33 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.78 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.35
ERA
Ldr 1.78
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
ASTROS
0%
PHILLIES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.1%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.37
PHILADELPHIA
Houston
5.55
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
HOU @ PHI
2 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
HOU @ PHI
7 - 11
Sep 8, 2026
HOU @ PHI
6 - 5
Jun 26, 2025
PHI @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 25, 2025
PHI @ HOU
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Houston
HOU
2
Games Played
2
3.50
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.286
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.724
▲
OPS
.582
3
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.1% more
Houston: 1.9
vs
Philadelphia: 1.2
Errors (L5)
+42.0% more
Houston: 0.7
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.3% more
Houston: 10.9
vs
Philadelphia: 8.0
Walks (L5)
+20.5% more
Houston: 2.4
vs
Philadelphia: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.4
0
HOU Score
5.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 9.5
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 8.0
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 15.4
9.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PHI
HOU
PHI
ML
50%
81-82
59%
97-67
47%
77-87
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-72
65%
107-57
55%
90-74
51%
83-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
57%
88-67-9
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-76-9
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