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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

40-40  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jun 24 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

38-40  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.36 -- 1.0 3
Reid Detmers None-None 4.50 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.36 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
RED SOX --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

38.7%

Angels Cover

61.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.9%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.24
BOSTON
5.39
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.409
OPS
▲ .679
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7600.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +304.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +39.4% more
Los Angeles: 2.0 vs Boston: 1.4
Strikeouts (L5) +28.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.7 vs Boston: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.2 2
LAA Score 5.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.5 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 7.5 9.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 14.2 14.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.4 / 5.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BOS
LAA
BOS
ML
59% 96-66
50% 80-80
55% 89-73
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 72-83-5
52% 82-75-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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