ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
35-41 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
46-32 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.77 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.77
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
METS
100%
BRAVES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
18.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.4
ATLANTA
New York
3.3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
New York
NYM
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.757
▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.2% more
Atlanta: 8.4
vs
New York: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+5.2%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.8%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.4
3
NYM Score
3.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.0
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.4
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 11.8
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATL
NYM
ATL
ML
50%
79-80
46%
77-90
48%
76-83
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
96-71
49%
78-81
52%
87-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
83-73-11
51%
74-72-13
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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