NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
45-32 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
40-38 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.67 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.18 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.67 Ldr
ERA
3.18
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
0%
REDS
100%
YANKEES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.0%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.96
NEW YORK
Cincinnati
4.44
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CIN @ NYY
4 - 1
Jun 20, 2026
CIN @ NYY
10 - 2
Jun 19, 2026
CIN @ NYY
0 - 5
Jun 25, 2025
NYY @ CIN
7 - 1
Jun 24, 2025
NYY @ CIN
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
1.041
▲
OPS
.699
2
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+54.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
OPS (Season)
+34.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Hits (L5)
+25.8% more
New York: 9.7
vs
Cincinnati: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.0
1
CIN Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 9.7
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.0
13.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 16.0
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.9
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NYY
CIN
NYY
ML
55%
88-71
47%
76-85
49%
79-81
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
86-73
59%
95-66
50%
80-80
53%
86-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
53%
81-73-7
54%
83-72-5
53%
82-72-7
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