PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
31-48 | Road
5
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
43-35 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 1.15 | -- | 3.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.23
ERA
Ldr 1.15
--
WHIP
--
3.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
34%
BREWERS
66%
PIRATES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.13
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
5.14
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+109.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+81.4% more
Milwaukee: 20.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.3
Hits (L5)
+51.9% more
Milwaukee: 13.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.9% more
Milwaukee: 7.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.1
5
MIL Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
13.8 / 9.1
9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 6.6
16.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
20.4 / 11.3
12.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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