CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
46-31 | Road
2
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
42-36 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ben Brown
#32 | Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brown | None-None | 6.13 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.13
ERA
Ldr 2.57
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
CUBS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
14.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.98
CHICAGO
St. Louis
3.43
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.378
.374
OPS
▲
.691
0
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+75.2% more
Chicago: 3.3
vs
St. Louis: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+47.6% more
Chicago: 19.6
vs
St. Louis: 10.3
Walks (L5)
+21.8% more
Chicago: 3.2
vs
St. Louis: 2.5
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Chicago: 0.9
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.0
2
STL Score
3.4
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.7
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 3.3
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.7
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 19.6
25.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53%
85-74
58%
93-68
52%
84-77
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
89-70
61%
97-63-1
53%
85-76
47%
75-85-1
TTL
46%
68-81-10
52%
81-74-6
50%
76-75-10
46%
72-83-6
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