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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

40-39  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Jun 23 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

37-40  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.60 -- 1.2 1
Sam Bachman None-None 1.80 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 ERA Ldr 1.80
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
RED SOX --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

47.5%

Angels Cover

52.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.0%

BOS By 3-4 runs

12.8%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.8%

LAA By 3-4 runs

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.39
BOSTON
4.64
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.409
OPS
▲ .679
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7600.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +304.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +51.5% more
Los Angeles: 2.5 vs Boston: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5) +30.6% more
Los Angeles: 9.5 vs Boston: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.4 5
LAA Score 4.6 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.0 / 8.2 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.3 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.2 / 14.7 9.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.0 3.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BOS
LAA
BOS
ML
59% 96-66
50% 80-80
55% 89-73
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 72-83-5
52% 82-75-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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