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INDIANA

PACERSIND

3-3  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sun, Jun 22 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

3-3  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PACERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Oklahoma City)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

29.3%

Thunder Cover

70.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

IND By 1-7 points

17.8%

IND By 8-14 points

7.5%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.6%

AI Model Projected Score
110.36
INDIANA
115.81
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
INDIANA
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 IND @ OKC 117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025 OKC @ IND 141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025 OKC @ IND 101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025 IND @ OKC 91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025 OKC @ IND 91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +9.0% more
Oklahoma City: 5.8 vs Indiana: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Oklahoma City: 82.6% vs Indiana: 75.4%
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
Indiana: 23.4 vs Oklahoma City: 17.6
Steals (L5) +20.1% more
Indiana: 11.7 vs Oklahoma City: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 110.4 91
OKC Score 115.8 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 35.8 27.5 / 39.3
Assists 17.6 / 23.4 20.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.4 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 44.6 40.2 / 41.4
Free Throw % 82.6 / 75.4 71.0 / 75.9
Rebounding 42.3 / 42.9 40.0 / 45.0
Steals 9.4 / 11.7 14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 15.8 8.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
IND
OKC
IND
ML
70% 80-34
48% 47-50
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 57-40
48% 46-49
54% 45-38
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 52-45
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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